Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

This paper focuses on the identification of climate change hot spots in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) looking at observed temperatures and regional climate model projections. Three different SRES emissions scenarios were used to cover a range of possible future climate. Results show that the northern part of the EMME could be exposed to increased heat wave amplitudes by 6–10 °C by the end of the century.

The southern part may experience 2–3 months (60 to 90 days) more combined hot days and tropical nights in 2100. Heat wave peak temperatures will be higher, because of the overall mean warming and stronger summer anticyclonic conditions. These projected future changes will have certainly effects on human health and the environment in many ways. There is a need for more detailed impact studies to support the development of sound adaptation strategies and action plans in order to deal with heat waves in future.