Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions

This study estimates a three-fold increase in annual heat-related mortality in Europe - to over 128 000 deaths per year - due to climatic changes and an ageing population -when temperatures rise by 3°C towards the end of the century. The study, published in the Lancet Public Health, modelled annual heat- and cold-related deaths across 1368 regions and 30 countries in Europe. Even though cold-related mortality will decrease, overall temperatures could kill 15% more people every year than today, particularly the elderly. Already existing regional disparities in heat risk, with more deaths in southern and eastern Europe, are expected to widen - even though heat-related mortality will rise everywhere in Europe. In Spain, Italy and Greece, many areas are labelled as so-called hotspots, with substantial projected increases in heat-related deaths due to both warming and ageing.