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Global heat-related mortality for populations older than 65 years. 
Source: Watts et al., 2020

Health issues

Europe is the fastest warming continent on the planet. In recent years, Europe has experienced record-breaking summer temperatures and repeated, long-lasting heatwaves. The duration and intensity of heatwaves dangerous to human health are increasing and are projected to further increase substantially across Europe under all climate scenarios, especially in Southern Europe.  

When exposed to periods of very high temperature, the human body may struggle to regulate itself, resulting in heat stress, heat exhaustion, heat stroke and complications from pre-existing medical conditions, in some cases leading to premature death. Elderly people, children, pregnant women, workers in physically demanding occupations, people suffering from cardiovascular, respiratory or renal diseases, diabetes or mental health disorders and marginalised and under-resourced people are among the most vulnerable to extreme heat (WHO Europe, 2021). Increased recreational use of water bodies during hot weather, combined with higher water temperatures, raises the risk of some waterborne diseases such as vibriosis. High temperatures, and a growing concern about climate change in general, can also cause poor mental health (EU-OSHA, 2025).   

Age, pre-existing medical conditions and social deprivation are key factors that make people likely to experience more adverse health outcomes related to heat and extreme temperatures (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2018). Other vulnerable groups at greater risk include people with chronic conditions (such as cardiorespiratory diseases, endocrine system disorders, mental health disorders, metabolic disorders and kidney disorders), pregnant women, small children, outdoor workers, people living in urban settings in socially and economically deprived environments, migrants and travellers. In addition to climate change, population ageing and urbanization strongly affect the relationship between temperatures and health in the WHO European Region (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2021).

Observed effects

As many as 95% of the fatalities associated with weather and climate-related extremes recorded in Europe between 1980 and 2023 were linked to heatwaves (EEA, 2024a). For 2022, it was estimated that between 60,000 and 70,000 people in Europe died from heat (Ballester et al., 2023; Ballester et al., 2024). In 2023, just under 48,000 heat-related deaths were estimated across Europe (Gallo et al., 2024). Heat impacts also are an additional burden for Europe’s already stretched healthcare systems. For example, in Portugal, daily hospital admissions increased by 19% during heatwave days between 2000 and 2018 (Alho et al., 2024). The effects of global warming are already being felt now: half of the heat-related deaths in Europe in the summer of 2022 have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change (Beck et al., 2024). According to the European Climate Risk Assessment, heat risks to the general population are already at critical levels in Southern Europe (EEA, 2024b).  

In addition, the built environment characteristics influence exposure of population to heat. Nearly half of hospitals and schools in European cities are in areas with strong urban heat island effects (>2°C), meaning that their vulnerable users and staff are exposed to high temperatures.  

Impaired health and wellbeing during heatwaves can reduce labour supply and labour productivity, and can also be associated with work accidents and injuries. This reduction leads to wider economic and financial impacts in the most affected regions. 

Projected effects

High temperatures and heatwaves are projected to increase in frequency in the future, especially in Southern Europe. The European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) describes the level of risk to human health from heat in the second half of the century as ‘catastrophic’, calling for urgent action (EEA, 2024b). Even if global warming is limited to the 1.5°C level, 100 million people in the EU and the UK are expected to experience extreme heatwaves annually by the end of the century; a tenfold increase compared to the 1981-2010 baseline (Naumann et al., 2020).  

The share of EU elderly people aged over 65 is projected to increase from 21.6% in 2024 to 32.5% by 2100 (Eurostat, 2025), exacerbating the risk of heat-related exposure and mortality. According to the evidence base in EUCRA, without adaptation, and given the expected demographic changes, extreme heat-related mortality in the EU is projected to increase 10-fold under 1.5°C global warming levels but by more than 30-fold at 3°C global warming levels. This corresponds to possibly hundreds of thousands of deaths attributable to heat by the end of the century. The effects on mortality and morbidity will be highest in southern Europe (EEA, 2024b). 

Policy responses

Heat prevention requires a portfolio of actions at different levels, including meteorological early warning systems, timely public and medical advice, improvements to housing and urban planning (e.g. provision of urban greening), ensuring that healthcare and social systems are ready to act and adjusting the working conditions in periods of hot weather. At EU level, the Regulation on Serious Cross-Border Threats to Health (EU) 2022/2371 reinforces Member State and EU preparedness and response planning, including for climate-related events such as extreme heat. 

The impacts of heat on human health are recognised in the large share of national adaptation policies and national health strategies. Yet, according to the European Climate Risk Assessment, the level of policy preparedness to heat for Europe as a whole is assessed as medium, due to different approaches used to estimate the heat-related mortality burden across Member States and aspects of social justice often missing from adaptation policies (EEA, 2024b).  

Heat-health action plans (HHAPs) are recognised as a key tool for reducing deaths and preventing other health impacts during periods of high temperatures. The purpose of a HHAP is to assign responsibilities in the event of a heat emergency, as well as to plan both short-term actions (such as issuing weather-based alerts and advice on behaviour) and long-term improvements in housing and urban planning to reduce heat exposure (WHO Europe, 2021). In 2024, 21 of the EEA-38 countries had heat-health action plans (HHAPs) in place, and another four were developing HHAPs. Further development, evaluation and revision of HHAPs with a particular focus on vulnerable populations is recommended to better prepare countries for future heat extremes (EEA, 2024c). All EEA-38 countries signed the Declaration of the Seventh Ministerial Conference on Environment and Health (‘The Budapest Declaration’), where they committed to ‘developing and updating heat-health action plans, to effectively prevent, prepare for and respond to heat-related health risks, while adapting urban planning to address the impacts of urban heat island effects, taking into account the competencies of different levels of governance’ (WHO Europe, 2023). 

Climate-related health risks in the workplace, including heat stress, are addressed under the EU Strategic Framework on Health and Safety at Work (2021–2027), which sets out key priorities and areas of intervention to ensure safe and healthy working conditions in the face of emerging challenges, including those related to climate change and heat at work. Specifically in relation to high temperatures, EU-OSHA published heat at work guidance in May 2023. The European Commission is currently assessing the issue of heat at work in the context of the ongoing review of the EU Workplace Directive 89/654/EEC. In November 2024, the Advisory Committee on Safety and Health at Workhas adopted the opinion “Climate Change – extreme weather conditions” recommending further action on heat at work. In December 2024, the Senior Labour Inspectors’ Committee (SLIC) of the European Commission set up a working group on Physical Agents to support the SLIC to promote consistency in the enforcement of EU OSH Directives concerning exposure to physical risks also in the area of extreme temperatures, and to identify the impact of climate change on workers’ safety and health across all sectors.    

The European Commission’s Comprehensive Approach to Mental Health (2023) highlights the need to consider environmental and climate-related stressors, such as extreme heat, in addressing mental health and wellbeing across all population groups. 

Looking ahead, building on the first EUCRA and the European Commission’s Communication on managing climate risks – protecting people and prosperity, the upcoming European climate resilience and risk management initiative is currently being developed to establish a more ambitious, comprehensive and coherent EU approach to climate resilience and preparedness, covering Member States and the EU level. The initiative, planned for adoption toward the end of 2026, will prioritise the protection of people’s health and wellbeing in response to intensifying climate change risks, including extreme and prolonged heat, for example, by ensuring regular science-based risk assessments and providing accessible tools for the public and decision-makers. 

Further information

References

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