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PESETA I-II-III-IV Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on boTtom-up Analysis


Description:

The series of PESETA projects (PESETA I, PESETA II, PESETA III and PESETA IV) of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) has intended to better understand the possible biophysical and economic consequences of future climate change for Europe. The main motivation of launching the series of climate impact assessments has been to better understand how climate change can affect Europe, in order to derive useful insights for climate adaptation.

PESETA I (completed in 2009) considers the impacts of climate change in five different areas and the results are reported both in sectoral studies (for agriculture, coastal systems, tourism, human health) and in the final report of the project. The final report presents the main elements of the methodological framework of the project, including the main features of the climate scenarios used to perform the analysis. It also reports the main findings of the sectoral assessments and the results of integrating the sectoral economic impacts into the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model for Europe to explore possible adaptation priorities within the EU.

PESETA II (completed in 2014), is largely based on the knowledge and experience derived from the previous PESETA project, extending the analysis to more sectors and also considering more climate runs. A synthesis of results for biophysical impact categories is available for agriculture, forest fires, river floods, tree species habitat suitability, demand for energy, tourism, transport infrastructure, human health, sea level rise (coast), tipping points, droughts. Most of these impacts are integrated into the computable general equilibrium economic model GEM-E3 to perform the economic analysis. Final results of the project are reported in the PESETA II final report.

PESETA III (completed in 2018), is based, as previous PESETAs, on a consistent framework that integrates climate and socio-economic projections, impact models and economic analysis. It uses the new family of climate futures (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs; and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs). Furthermore, EURO-CORDEX climate data consistent with the high-end emission scenario (RCP8.5 family) are used, instead of the older IPCC SRES scenarios. Documentation with results of the project can be found in the Final Report, in Policy cards and in sectoral reports for coastal floods, river floods, energy, transport, droughts, agriculture, Mediterranean habitat loss, forest fires, water resources, and labour productivity. The JRC PESETA III project results have been included in the report on the evaluation of the EU adaptation strategy of the European Commission.

The implications of climate change for the EU are further investigated within the PESETA IV study that evaluated the benefits (as avoided negative impacts) of reducing GHG emissions and the potential of adaptation measures at the EU sectoral level. Eleven climate impact categories are included in the study: human mortality from heat and cold waves, windstorms, water resources, droughts, river flooding, coastal flooding, wildfires, habitat loss, forest ecosystems, agriculture and energy supply. Main findings of the project with key scientific conclusions and policy implications can be found in the Final Report as well as in the sectors reports on the PESETA IV website.

Project information

Lead

Joint Research Center

Partners

PESETA project builds on the advice and comments from the members of the Advisory Board. 

Source of funding

European Commission (EC) Joint Research Center (JRC)

Reference information

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