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Study on adaptation modelling - Comprehensive desk review: climate adaptation models and tools


This report is part of a study commissioned by the European Commission - DG Climate Action on adaptation modelling, which includes also a  report on a recommended approach to analysis and modelling and a report on rapid analysis.

This comprehensive desk review aims to address the European Commissions’ requirement to support better-informed decision making on climate adaptation at multiple governance levels: it provides a comprehensive, up-to-date and forward-looking overview of the range of technical, financial, economic and non-monetary models and tools for hazards, risks, impacts, vulnerability and adaptation climate assessments. The aim is not only to collate current knowledge on climate adaptation assessment methodologies, but also to highlight research gaps in each field.

The comprehensive desk review covers the key groups of model and tool methodologies and provides a reference guide to the tools and models catalogued in a supporting Annex, which in turns provides detailed descriptions of the methodological features and the specific use of individual models and tools. In order to support policy decision-making, the review considered the requirement for assessment tools and methodologies to support each stage of the adaptation policy cycle of the Adaptation Support Tool.

Due to the emphasis of improving the understanding of climate adaptation assessments and methodologies, the review excludes climatological models but does provide comprehensive coverage of the relevant model categories, devoting a chapter to each one: Hazard, exposure and vulnerability modelling; Sectoral models for impact and adaptation assessment; Economic models for impact and adaptation assessment; Other techniques (which covers qualitative and semi-qualitative techniques of agent-based models, stakeholder and multi-criteria analyses). A fifth chapter discusses the possible use of the resulting information as a support to decision making under a range of requirements and situations. This includes decision making under high uncertainty about the future or for the comparison of the effectiveness of alternative adaptation strategies. The review is closed by offering some directions for future research, based on an analysis of the gaps in the current literature.

The review is complemented by a concise summary and by the aforementioned supporting Annex.

Reference information


Publications Office of the EU

European Commission

Published in Climate-ADAPT May 31 2021   -   Last Modified in Climate-ADAPT May 31 2021

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