Step 2 Assessing climate risks and vulnerabilities

Key message

This is the scoping phase. Define the essential components of your climate risk assessment, in terms of principles, methodology and governance of the assessment process.

Climate risk assessments aim to identify the biggest climate risks facing your area now and in the future. This involves analysing changes in weather patterns and climate-related hazards and extremes, along with changes in exposure and vulnerability. Although detailed assessments are complex and resource-intensive due to the need for comprehensive risk information, they offer higher accuracy, enabling better definition of adaptation objectives (Step 2.4) and informed decision-making on selecting adaptation measures (Step 4.2).

Setting the core elements of your climate risk assessment involves choosing the guiding principles (e.g. just resilience), the methodology for the technical risk analysis, and the governance elements of the climate risk assessment (e.g. ownership of data, communication of results and level of stakeholder engagement).

Climate risk assessment frameworks to consider

CLIMAAX Handbook
A comprehensive tool aiming to facilitate inclusive and harmonised climate risk assessments at the regional level. It translates the EU Mission on Adaptation’s objectives into actionable strategies for transformative adaptation, promoting resilience-building practices. CLIMAAX is structured in five iterative steps guided by established principles (governance, equity, social justice), technical choices (parameters, climate scenarios) and participatory processes (learning, communication, consultation).

EUCRA
The first climate risk assessment focusing on Europe. It introduces a high-level framework and assesses current and future impacts on the environment, the economy and society.

Climate risk assessment methodology

The choice of risk assessment methodology depends on local conditions, taking into account factors such as available resources, data, stakeholder involvement, potential risks, and desired outputs for adaptation planning. It should align with any current risk assessment procedures and national climate risk assessment. At minimum, the methodology should:

Define the assessment's scope, objectives, timeframe, climate change scenarios and geographical coverage. The main aim is to identify the key climate risks in your area, encompassing hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure across different sectors and communities, especially vulnerable groups. Clearly outline the specific people, sectors and regions to be assessed. (See Step 2.2 for more on identifying risks.)

Identify past and current risks.

Anticipate future risks and opportunities resulting from climate change.

Evaluate identified risks.

Your organisation's core team (Step 1.3) should form a working group and get expert support to plan and carry out this complex work of climate risk assessment. Involving stakeholders in this process is essential (Step 1.3). Your framework should outline clearly how relevant stakeholders (e.g. experts, local actors, sector representatives and citizens, including vulnerable groups) will be engaged. Their active participation in defining the objectives, identifying vulnerabilities and determining the desired outcomes of climate risk assessment ensures its relevance, effectiveness and inclusion.

Resources

MIP4Adapt’s DIY manual: Guide to climate risk assessment (2023)
Offers a straightforward, step-by-step method for evaluating climate risks and opportunities and conducting climate risk assessments.

ISO 14091, ISO Standards (2021)
Adaptation to climate change – guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment: It provides guidelines for developing and implementing a sound climate risk assessment and improves your understanding of vulnerability.

ISO 14092, ISO Standards (2020)
Details specific requirements and guidance on adaption planning for local governments and communities, with a focus on identifying vulnerabilities, impacts and risk assessments.

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