Step 2.3 Assessing climate risks

Key message

Now you've established the objectives of your climate risk assessment (Step 2.1) and identified the risks for your region (Step 2.2), you can proceed with analysing these risks. It’s important to assess the risks identified and prioritised from the data you collected – on current and future climate-related hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Make sure to consider factors like social vulnerability and potential trans-regional and cascade impacts (see Step 2.2). Assessing the likelihood of future climate risks will help you define priority areas and establish adaptation objectives (Step 2.4), which will guide your adaptation planning effectively.

Climate risk assessments combine datasets on hazards, exposure and vulnerability, under current and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. Reflecting on data about the past climate – including locally occurring extreme weather events (e.g. floods, heatwaves, wildfires) – is crucial for accurate risk assessment. You should consider both the current situation and future trend projections of various climate variables and hazards, like average temperature and intense rainfall events.

To proceed, select future climate scenarios to understand how climate-related hazards might change in different potential futures. Your assessment should cover multiple scenarios to account for a range of possibilities, such as 'worst case', 'best case' and 'mid-range'. Consult national meteorological services for suitable climate projections that are aligned with your country’s adaptation strategy or plan. It’s important to understand how projected changes are represented. When interpreting projections, you should take into account factors like spatial scale, baseline period, projection timeline, the emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways) and socio-economic scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). For further guidance on identifying future scenarios, see Action 3 in MIP’s Guide to Climate Risk Assessment.

While simulations can help predict certain types of future risks (e.g. water-related risks or agricultural impacts), they often don't fully consider vulnerability factors and should be supplemented with expert knowledge.

The CLIMAAX project provides a toolbox and handbook for risk analysis, integrating European and global open data with local procedures for local and regional use.

Be mindful of uncertainties in projections, as future conditions may vary. Climate-ADAPT and the RESIN project offer valuable guidance on managing uncertainties for improved planning and communication.