Step 2.2 Identifying risks

Key message

Identify potential risks for your region that need further in-depth assessment. Remember to account for vulnerability and transboundary risks.

Collect data on climate risks in your region

The goal here is to create a systematic inventory of risks in your region, drawing from various sources. This includes past climate in your area (including locally occurring extreme weather events like floods, heatwaves or wildfires), records of data for multiple climate hazards, and information on exposure and vulnerability (based on the region's geographical and socio-economic features). Assessments at national or continental level, like EUCRA, can add valuable insights to this inventory.

In Step 1.1, you began gathering data from credible sources, including your own organisation, local stakeholders, and national and EU platforms like the Mission Portal’s Adaptation Dashboard and the Climate-ADAPT country profiles. These resources can inform you about climate risks – including acute (e.g. extreme weather events) and chronic (e.g. slow-onset changes) risks – and about data on climate-related hazards, impacts, vulnerability, exposure and adaptation policies at national and regional levels.

Understand and consider vulnerability

Climate change impacts vary across sectors/systems (e.g. physical risks to infrastructure, socio-economic and health impacts on communities) and social groups (e.g. elderly people, children, women, those at risk of poverty). Certain sectors, areas, and communities under your local or regional authority are more vulnerable to climate change, either due to inherent sensitivity (e.g. the elderly) or limited capacity to adapt, often linked to pre-existing inequalities. Identifying these vulnerable areas and mapping the most socially vulnerable groups is crucial. They form part of the overall risk facing your area, and should be explicitly considered in your risk assessment (Step 2.3). Many organisations focus on technical adaptation measures (e.g. building dikes), but reducing the vulnerability of people and sectors is equally important.

Vulnerable sector

Vulnerable groups

Certain sectors within your area are likely to be more sensitive or have less capacity to adapt, and so be more vulnerable. Identifying these vulnerable sectors is crucial for prioritising adaptation efforts. Climate risk assessments should consider general sensitivity to climate impacts and exposure of assets in a wide range of sectors. These include agriculture, industry, disaster risk management, public health, social well-being, urban planning, buildings, energy, transport, water, environmental protection, biodiversity, education and tourism.

Aim for socially just adaptation by recognising vulnerable social groups and addressing their needs. Data is essential for identifying and mapping vulnerable groups. Step 1.1 has guidance on navigating the different levels of data available on current socio-economic conditions. This includes, for example, population density or age structure (with particular attention to the elderly and children), vulnerability and exposure, and may involve qualitative information on institutional capacity to manage specific risks. Consult existing hazard studies or maps to identify areas, people and assets already at risk from climate impacts, as they will most likely face increased risk in the future. Tools for mapping social vulnerability are useful in adaptation planning and help with risk assessments (see Example 2.2).

Engaging vulnerable groups, representatives of vulnerable sectors and relevant stakeholders in risk assessment processes can also be beneficial. For instance, involving social care and health workers at the regional or local level ensures equity and inclusion of vulnerable groups (see Example 2.1).

Example 2.1 Adapting to the impacts of heatwaves in a changing climate in Botkyrka, Sweden

In the 20th century, heatwaves occurred once every 20 years in Sweden (the last being in 1975). But since the start of this millennium, four heatwaves have already occurred (in 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2018). Extensive efforts have been made in the municipality of Botkyrka to reduce heatwaves’ health risks. Thanks to these efforts, elderly care, retirement and nursing are more knowledgeable about heatwave risks and the checklists they should follow in case of heatwave warnings. If necessary, additional staff can be activated to ensure further support for safe care. As a result, during the 2018 heatwave the municipality was far better prepared and equipped than previously. Botkyrka is also supporting actions to improve indoor thermal comfort and create ‘cool spots’ in various parts of the municipality.

Full case study on Climate-ADAPT

Example 2.2 Environmental Justice Atlas, Berlin, Germany

The Environmental Justice Atlas for Berlin reveals the present environmental state of the metropolitan area, detailing environmental pressures, causes, effects, sensitivities, hazards, land use and building density. Its indicators focus on environmental justice – noise and air pollution, the bioclimatic burden, green and open spaces, and social deprivation. They show that thermal stress in urban regions disproportionately impacts lower-income groups. This data will be used to allocate funding for environmental improvements in neighbourhoods that need them the most.

Source: Berlin Environmental Justice Atlas

Consider trans-regional and cascading impacts

The area under your authority’s jurisdiction is connected to its surroundings, and climate change impacts transcend administrative boundaries, affecting areas outside your control. These interdependencies (particularly in water management) mean collaboration is needed among local or regional authorities and neighbouring jurisdictions (see Step 1.3). This coordination – which in some countries may be managed at national or regional level – is essential for addressing shared risks and navigating different political, legal and institutional contexts (see Examples 2.3 and 2.4). Impact cascades occur when a mix of climate- and non-climate-related hazards spread through various sectors, triggering subsequent effects. For instance, reduced rainfall in a shared river basin can lead to water scarcity downstream, affecting agriculture and access to drinking water, and to cross-boundary risks such as disruptions in transport systems. When assessing climate risks, it's crucial to consider these impacts and foster collaboration across sectors and borders to lessen their impact.

Example 2.3 Coastal Contract: A governance approach for integrated wetland management, Sardinia, Italy

The coastal region of Oristano in Sardinia, Italy, is facing a wide range of climate hazards, including drought, coastal and inland flooding, and heatwaves. Its wetlands help protect the region, acting as a carbon sink and providing resilience against extreme climate events. But managing and protecting these wetlands is a challenge because of fragmented government responsibilities. To tackle this, the region developed the Coastal Contract – a governance tool facilitating cross-sectoral cooperation at the local level which supports integrated management of coastal wetlands. The Coastal Contract has 14 signatories from different levels of government, including municipalities and local and regional authorities. It shows a commitment to multi-level and participatory governance by a wide range of stakeholders and illustrates a successful multi-stakeholder approach to watershed management.

Full story in Adaptation Stories on the Mission Portal

Example 2.4 Multi-disciplinary strategic plan for the Vesdre watershed, Wallonia, Belgium.

Following severe flooding in July 2021, a multi-disciplinary strategic plan was launched for the Vesdre district in Wallonia, Belgium. It provides a shared vision for the territory, guiding the resilient and coherent reconstruction of the region, supported by EUR 1.1 billion of financing for Wallonia from the European Investment Bank. The plan integrates principles of trans-boundary climate change planning, involving 25 municipalities across a varying landscape. This initiative shows how municipalities can work together regionally to build resilience to climate change.

More information on Wallonie Territorie SPW and European Investment Bank

Resources

EEA’s report Just transition in the context of adaptation to climate change (2021)
Gives an overview of knowledge and practice for just resilience in Europe, with a focus on social impacts of adaptation and resilience.

EEA’s briefing Towards ‘just resilience’: leaving no one behind when adapting to climate change (2021)
Looks at how climate change affects vulnerable groups and how these impacts can be prevented or reduced through equitable adaptation actions. It presents examples of equity-oriented policies and measures from across Europe.

EEA’s briefing Addressing climate change adaptation in transnational regions in Europe (2021)
Outlines how European countries are working together to adapt to climate change impacts in shared regions, including some ‘hotspots’ considered most vulnerable to dramatic changes.

UNECE’s Water and Climate Change Adaptation in Transboundary Basins: Lessons Learned and Good Practices (2015)
Learnings and good practices for developing climate change adaptation strategies for watershed management in trans-boundary environments.