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Project

THOR : Thermohaline Overturning – at Risk

Description:

THOR aims to provide significant enhancement in the following fields:
° Quantifying THC variability on time scales up to centennial and identification of the key processes and feed-back mechanisms responsible for this variability.
° Quantifying ocean state uncertainties derived from combined model and data analysis.
° Quantifying Atlantic THC flux variability on time scales up to decadal, providing benchmarks for model tests.
° Quantifying the strength of the Nordic sources to the deep limb of the THC.
° Quantifying the skill of coupled forecast models on decadal time scales.
° Forecasting the THC variability on decadal time scales.
° Near real time data transfer from deep sea moorings.
° Assimilation techniques for coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models.

THOR will establish an operational system that will monitor and forecast the development of the North Atlantic THC on decadal time scales and assess its stability and the risk of a breakdown in a changing climate. Through the assimilation of systematic oceanic observations at key locations into ocean circulation models it will provide a set of geo-observational products that will be used to forecast the development of the system using global coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

Project information

Lead
University of Hamburg (DE) Prof. Detlef Quadfasel
Partners

UNIVERSITAET HAMBURG (DE);
MAX PLANCK GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN E.V. (DE);
MET OFFICE (UK);
UNIVERSITE PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE - PARIS (FR);
UNIVERSITETET I BERGEN (NO);
THE UNIVERSITY OF READING (UK);
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (UK);
LEIBNIZ-INSTITUT FUER MEERESWISSENSCHAFTEN AN DER UNIVERSITAET KIEL (DE);
KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT (KNMI) (NL);
DANMARKS METEOROLOGISKE INSTITUT (DK);
FISKIRANNSOKNARSTOVAN (FO) ;
ILMATIETEEN LAITOS (FI);
HAFRANNSOKNASTOFNUNIN (IS);
STICHTING KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR ZEEONDERZOEK (NIOZ) (NL);
THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR ENVIRONMENT, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS (UK);
THE SCOTTISH ASSOCIATION FOR MARINE SCIENCE (UK);
NATURAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH COUNCIL (UK);
STIFTELSEN NANSEN SENTER FOR FJERNMAALING (NO);
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE (FR);
COMMISSARIAT A L' ENERGIE ATOMIQUE (FR)

Source of funding
FP 7

Reference information

Websites:

Keywords

Modelling, ocean currents, thermohaline circulation

Duration

2008/12/1-2012/11/30

Climate impacts

Extreme Temperatures

Elements

Observations and Scenarios

Sectors

Marine and Fisheries

Geographic characterization

Europe

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