Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change

This article analysis the potential effectiveness of private farmer adaptation in Europe by jointly estimating both short-run and long-run response functions using time-series and cross-sectional variation in subnational yield and profit data.

The difference between the impacts of climate change projected using the short-run (limited adaptation) and long-run (substantial adaptation) response curves can be interpreted as the private adaptation potential. The results show high adaptation potential for maize to future warming but large negative effects and only limited adaptation potential for wheat and barley. Overall, agricultural profits could increase slightly under climate change if farmers adapt but could decrease in many areas if there is no adaptation. Moreover, by decomposing the variance in 2040 projected yields and farm profits using an ensemble of 13 climate model runs, the authors find that the rate at which farmers will adapt to rising temperatures is an important source of uncertainty.