IMPACT2C modelling results: climate change and sea-level rise from a 2°C climate

This policy brief provides a summary of the detailed regional climate modelling results for Europe.

The IMPACT2C project has analysed the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) to see when global mean warming might exceed the 2°C goal, relative to pre-industrial levels. With the exception of the deep mitigation RCP2.6 scenario, the results indicate we are likely to pass the goal before the middle of the century.

The project has analysed regional climate modelling results for Europe, using the EUROCORDEX simulations. This provides information on the warming that could be experienced in Europe at 2°C of global warming.

A key finding is that the pattern of warming and extreme events in Europe increases relative risks, compared to a situation where Europe warms equally. This is of high policy relevance: even if the 2°C goal is achieved, Europe will experience strong distributional impacts. A 2°C world is therefore not benign for Europe and further work to explore these hotspots and to advance early adaptation is needed.