Arctic tipping points (ATP)

Arctic Tipping Points (ATP) aimed to identify the elements of the Arctic marine ecosystem likely to show abrupt changes in response to climate change, and to establish the levels of the corresponding climate drivers inducing regime shift in those tipping elements. The project analysed time series data and carried out experiments to investigate the existence of climate driven tipping points for key species and ecosystem processes in the Arctic Ocean. Researchers studied changes to sea ice and ocean temperature and the consequences of crossing tipping points and the impact on the economic sector. Scientists modelled future tipping points using a biological–physical coupled model based on time series data and experimental analyses. A two-dimensional cellular automata model was also developed to test the properties of different fisheries' management regimes. In addition, researchers investigated optimal oil and gas exploitation strategies under certain prices and weather conditions. ATP provided advice on sustainable resource management and climate effects on different climate scenarios to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and formulated a white paper evaluating policy options to avoid exceeding tipping points. ATP provided policy makers, managers, stakeholders and the general public with an understanding of the ecological thresholds and regime shifts that may develop in the Arctic in response to climate change. More important, study findings also indicated how the ecosystems will respond to EU targets for emissions.